OPINION September 23, 2022

Opportunity will emerge from the muck

Early this year, an executive of a large real estate company decided to unload a $2.25 million rental property in Southern California.

At the time, he was expecting multiple, all-cash offers on a pocket listing. Remember those relics from the past?

That was before inflation hit the north pole. Before Putin’s tanks rolled into Ukraine. Before the economy sunk into a recession. Before it cost a Benjamin to fill up your tank. Before corporate earnings went the wrong way. Before the stock market fell off a cliff. Before consumer confidence waned.

Before rising mortgage rates cracked the spine of an otherwise healthy housing market.

The perfect storm

In the meantime, our SoCal real estate executive waited until this summer to list his property.

After several price cuts, he closed for $1.75 million — 20 percent off his price expectations. He was caught off guard by how quickly things deteriorated.

Software companies are already feeling the pinch too, as are other proptech firms, like the power buyers. Competing with all cash buyers is no longer a problem that consumers need to fret about.

Many startups will pivot their business models. For some, it will be a last gasp.

Middle managers will be hit the hardest as company layoffs accelerate. Many agents, mortgage brokers and title reps will leave the business.

Opportunity will emerge from the muck

The listing inventory will grow as the economy worsens and more homeowners are forced to sell. Already, a growing number of bankrupt sellers are unloading their homes.

An oversupply of unsold new home inventory — now seven months — is piling up.

Homes may be harder to sell, but experienced agents will dust off their old playbooks, double down and see their clients through the quagmire.

Buyers will be the winners, with more options, lower prices and friendlier terms. Affordability will remain a problem, as interest rates rise, but buyers will no longer overpay for their investment.

Opportunistic investors, as always, will make out, once prices decline.

Wall Street will go one of two ways: accelerate their single-family home acquisition programs or dump their holdings.

Either way, they will be back later, bottom fishing.

Is this really what’s unfolding?

I wish it wasn’t.

Shared article published

in INMAN

https://www.inman.com/2022/09/23/this-is-not-a-drill-a-new-unfriendly-housing-market-is-already-here/

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